Linear and non-linear transmission of equity return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia

This paper models the transmission of shocks between the US, Japanese and Australian equity markets. Tests for the existence of linear and non-linear transmission of volatility across the markets are performed using parametric and non-parametric techniques. In particular the size and sign of return innovations are important factors in determining the degree of spillovers in volatility. It is found that a multivariate asymmetric GARCH formulation can explain almost all of the non-linear causality between markets. These results have important implications for the construction of models and forecasts of international equity returns.     

铁路多经物流的规模经济研究及实例分析

随着物流被列为十大振兴产业革命之一,目前,我国铁路多经物流运输企业正面临着一个十分良好的发展机遇,近年来,不少企业通过各种方式扩大自己的生产经营规模,以取得更好的经营效果。通过运用多元线性回归模型来分析企业的规模经济,分别从理论和实例两个方面相结合进行研究,论证铁路多经物流存在着局部和总体的规模经济,结合此多元线性回归模型分析铁路多经物流由于规模扩大而出现经济的原因。     

How are gold returns related to stock or bond returns in the U.S. market? Evidence from the past 10-year gold market

Although the gold market over the past decade has been soaring relative to its prior history, there have been few studies on the relationship between the gold market and other major financial markets based on the past decade of data. To re-investigate how the gold market interacts with the stock market and the bond market, we re-visit economic and financial characteristics of gold using the past 10-year data in terms of co-integration, causality, predictive power, and extreme returns. We find that while gold returns are not co-integrated with stock returns and bond returns, gold returns have a unidirectional causality with both of them. Also, we discover that gold returns have some predictive power on subsequent short-term stock returns. Under extreme market scenarios, it turns out that gold returns tend to deteriorate more simultaneously with bond returns than stock returns. This means that gold can better serve as a safe haven for stock in a relative sense during temporary market downturns.     

Landscape properties as drivers for farm diversification: A Dutch case study

Farm diversification is stimulated by the societal demand to transform production countryside into consumption countryside. In most empirical studies on farmers’ decision making for diversification, geographical information is either omitted or reduced to a variable that links the farm to an administrative unit. Therefore, the influence of the exact farm location on farmers’ decision making is often lacking. The paper addresses the role of location, in terms of site specific natural conditions as well as neighboring dynamics, in influencing farmers’ decision making to diversify. Moreover, it investigates to what extend low returns from primary production stimulate farmers to find new survival strategies, and therefore explains diversification. The Gelderse Vallei area, a region in the center of the Netherlands, is used as a case study. For this area an extensive farm survey data could be combined with topographic data and soil maps (GIS). Both the number of activities as well as the kind of activities that are taken up are analyzed. Landscape attractiveness turns out to be a driver of diversification. Daily recreation most frequently occurs close to national parks, green services are more likely to occur on relatively wet soils. Activities resulting from diversification might produce positive externalities: new activities have the tendency to emerge next to already existing ones, therewith explaining the formation of “hotspots” in the landscape. Finally, diversification was found to be sensitive to returns from primary agriculture production.     

次贷危机下美国和全球股市之联动

本文选用NADCC-EGARCH模型研究了次贷危机影响下全球主要股票市场的反应,并捕捉到欧亚五个股市同美国股市联动关系的变化过程。实证显示,由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机造成了全球股票市场不同程度的动荡,出现熊市迹象。美国同全球股市间的联动关系在危机扩散后存在结构性变化,且欧洲、日本等成熟市场与美国市场的联动关系受美国股市负面消息的影响较大。中国虽受到一定程度的冲击,但是国内股票市场结构相对稳定。     

A new class of production functions and an argument against purely labor‐augmenting technical change

This paper derives the macro‐level production function from idea‐based microfoundations. Labor‐augmenting and capital‐augmenting developments are assumed to be Pareto‐distributed and mutually dependent. Using the Clayton copula family to capture this dependence, a new “Clayton–Pareto” class of production functions is derived that nests both the Cobb–Douglas and the constant elasticity of substitution. In the most general case, technical change is not purely labor‐augmenting over the long run, but it augments both capital and labor. Under certain parametrizations, the derived elasticity of substitution between capital and labor exceeds unity and, therefore, gives rise to long‐run endogenous growth.     

Multivariate extremes for models with constant conditional correlations

Models with constant conditional correlations are versatile tools for describing the behavior of multivariate time series of financial returns. Mathematically speaking, they are solutions of a special class of stochastic recurrence equations (SRE). The extremal behavior of general solutions of SRE has been studied in detail by Kesten [Kesten, H., 1973. Random difference equations and renewal theory for products of random matrices. Acta Mathematica 131, 207–248] and Perfekt [Perfekt, R., 1997. Extreme value theory for a class of Markov chains with values in ^d. Advances in Applied Probability 29, 138–164]. The central concept to understanding the joint extremal behavior of such multivariate time series is the multivariate regular variation spectral measure. In this paper, we propose an estimator for the spectral measure associated with solutions of SRE and prove its consistency. Our estimator is the tail empirical measure of the multivariate time series. Successful use of the estimator depends on a good choice of k, the number of upper order statistics contributing to the empirical measure. We introduce a new criteria for the choice of k based on a scaling property of the spectral measure. We investigate the performance of our estimation technique on exchange rate time series from HFDF96 data set. The estimated spectral measure is used to calculate probabilities of joint extreme returns and probabilities of large movements in an exchange rate conditional on the occurrence of extreme returns in another exchange rate. We find a high level of dependence between the extreme movements of most of the currencies in the EU. We also investigate the changes in the level of dependence between the extreme returns of pairs of currencies as the sampling frequency decreases. When at least one return is extreme, a strong dependence between the components is present already at the 4-hour level for most of the European currencies.     

标准化系数与偏相关系数的比较与应用

在多元回归分析中，经常用标准化系数和偏相关系数来描述自变量的相对重要性，本文研究了这两个系数之间的数量关系及其统计意义，得出两者具有相同的正负号，证明出在二元回归中两者相对大小始终一致，而在自变量个数超过两个的回归模型中两者相对大小不一定完全一致，最后通过实例，说明在两者出现不一致情况下，判断自变量相对重要性的解决方法和应注意的问题。     

How to model multivariate extremes if one must?

In this paper we discuss some approaches to modeling extremely large values in multivariate time series. In particular, we discuss the notion of multivariate regular variation as a key to modeling multivariate heavy-tailed phenomena. The latter notion has found a variety of applications in queuing theory, stochastic networks, telecommunications, insurance, finance and other areas. We contrast this approach with modeling multivariate extremes by using the multivariate student distribution and copulas.